We will finally stop China!

The new US envoy to the European Union, Gordon D. Sondland, yesterday voiced what I have been advocating since 2009: "The jackpot ... is to have what is about a $40 trillion combined GDP working as a bloc in terms of dealing with Chinese growth, Chinese theft of intellectual property, [and] Chinese militarisation of the South China Sea,"
The US wants to create a massive trade bloc with Europe to curb Chinese expansionism.


For next year, I would predict,
1.      A hefty internal economic crisis in China, due to the many bankruptcies of Chinese firms that now live from export to the West. GDP growth will stop and there will even be a slight recession, at least during one year. I cannot as yet to put a figure to this recession.
2.      The Chinese will want to come to the table with Trump to limit these damages. At first, Trump will put that off. Then, once at the table, he will demand more Chinese buying from the West and allow only an equivalent to be bought from China towards an equal flows of goods. Beijing will then wish to maximise both flows.
3.      Beijing will try to partly offset that internal crisis by having the largest part of their 3 trillion Foreign Trade Reserves flow into the Chinese economy, say 2.4 trillion. The present huge stash will then melt away and that will very abruptly stop the Chinese world-wide buying and bribing spree that began to be so unacceptable. The new Silk Road will have half-finished parts that will stay like that for a few years.
4.      The downward thump for the of the global economy will be between 1 and 1.5%  (my prediction). A high price, but not too high for what we will get in return: an end to the Chinese hubris, an end to Chinese economical overtaking and buying us and the beginning of a fair equilibrium between China and the rest of the world.
5.     Finally, I am curious if Trump will go as far as forcing the Chinese to turn back their appropriation of the South Chinese sea. It would be a good thing, but it will certainly meet stiff resistance. It would mean, in the maritime sphere too, to have forced China to behave normally, like all other nations with a coast.